CALL ON CONGRESS TO SHIFT in the MILITARY AID STRATEGY in Ukraine. (VIDEO+POLICY PROPOSAL)

to Reallocate Supplemental Aid to Ukraine

Executive Summary

Victory in Ukraine is synonymous with defense and hinges on the restoration of its territorial integrity. We have come to a turning point in history in which the survival of Ukraine depends on its capacity to defend itself right now, and deferred aid will be futile if Ukraine runs out of soldiers able to fight. This document serves as an urgent appeal to reallocate Supplemental Aid to Ukraine in order to emphasize the prioritization of the Military Aid and ensure the immediate delivery of all applicable munitions that are ready for shipment. We are grateful to the members of the Appropriation Committee for your consideration of the urgency and significance of the following deliverables in this urgent request.

1. Maximize Short Term Military Aid (PDA). In the Supplemental for FY2024, prioritize the allocation of short-term military aid (PDA) over long-term Military Aid to Ukraine (USAI) and over non-military assistance. In order to recapture its territory, Ukraine needs to break through Russia’s defenses now, not later. Ukraine’s Armed Forces is a proven, highly competent military, and possesses the military effectiveness to successfully operate new equipment in rapid timeframes. However, the military requires an immediate substantial boost in its military capabilities to gain an advantage on the battlefield, and long-term defense cannot become possible without short-term capability. Better weapons must be sent now.

2. Front-load Military Aid in the Supplemental Bill, emphasizing the urgent need of an expedited delivery. The US must prioritize the shipment of the bulk of available weapons and ammunition within the initial three months or sooner, followed by the distribution of the remaining Military Aid over the remainder of FY2024 promptly, upon availability. Timely provision is essential, as any delays in delivering military assistance to Ukraine can provide the aggressor with opportunities to prepare, adapt, and amass resources, thereby protracting the conflict, inflating its costs, complicating geopolitical dynamics, and heightening the potential for additional global conflicts and unforeseen challenges. A protracted war exacerbates the hardships faced by the people of Ukraine, and increases the risk that our allied-partners will be dragged directly into the conflict as Russian aggression has already begun to incrementally spill over on NATO’s Romanian territory. Front-loading Military Aid now will hedge the costs associated with the risks of a protracted war.

3. Include the requests in this document in the Supplemental Bill for Ukraine. In order to significantly tip the scales in Ukraine’s favor, the steps outlined in this document must be taken now. It is imperative to include the items 1 and 2 of this document as prescriptive in the Supplemental Bill for Ukraine, leaving no ambiguity about the implementation.

4. Provide Ukraine with the capabilities inline with assistance available to US partners and allies. We are witnessing a profound evolution in the nature of warfare and its rules as war unfolds on the battlefields of Ukraine. Currently, Ukraine serves as our invaluable partner in assimilating crucial lessons for nations to understand the intricacies of contemporary warfare without enduring the tragic toll on their citizens. But as Ukraine’s Armed Forces are running out of ammo on the battlefield, civilian life in Ukraine remains defenseless.

The ongoing tragedy emphasizes why Ukraine needs enhanced capabilities in order to gain superiority over the enemy and hence win. Ukraine needs long-range weapons, namely JASSM, SLAM-ER, PJDAM or Gray Wolf cruise missiles, ATACMs ballistic missiles, and JSOW-ER long range glide bombs. It is imperative to include 1000+ of these munitions into the Supplemental Bill to ensure timely delivery–and in necessary quantities for effective use.

Situational Overview of Current Aid Strategy
The timely provision of Military Aid to Ukraine is absolutely crucial for its survival and future victory. We cannot depend on an endless timeline in Ukraine–to the contrary, the next year will be decisive in Ukraine’s ability to achieve victory. Manpower is finite, and as winter sets in, ice and mud will make it nearly impossible to move incoming heavy artillery. During this time, Russia’s forces are expected to dig in deeper, fortifying the occupied territories. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s soldiers on the battlefield report they are severely outgunned by Russian drones and artillery.

Yet, as of November 2023, a mere 21% of the designated Supplemental Aid for Ukraine has been successfully delivered in the form of military equipment. The remaining aid is either awaiting shipment or constitutes non-military assistance. This figure accounts for less than $19 billion under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) and approximately $4 billion from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI). It is crucial to note that both PDA and USAI channel funds to American businesses, while Ukraine receives much needed military equipment.

Moving forward, the only realistic and viable political solution the US can implement right now to end the war is a concrete shift in aid strategy, wherein the delivery of advanced military capability to Ukraine is front-loaded within a rapid timeframe (three months or sooner).

The ongoing stalemate on the frontlines, wherein neither side can make substantial headway, underscores the competitive dynamic between Russia and Ukraine. Both nations are competing to acquire capabilities that can tip the balance in their favor. It's clear that Russia is making substantial investments in its military, and it is imperative that Ukraine receives the necessary support for securing an advantage over the aggressor. The side that manages to tip the balance in their favor first gets the advantage and becomes victorious.

Significant and simultaneous allocations of Military Aid empower the Armed Forces of Ukraine to outmatch Russian efforts to counter them and establish a substantial buffer, allowing for a meaningful impact on the battlefield. Historically, slow delivery of Military Aid has given Russian forces the opportunity to adapt to emerging threats, enhance their military capabilities, and become more potent and perilous, posing a threat not only to Ukraine but also to all free nations worldwide.

Ukraine needs an advantage on the battlefield in order to win. That includes air superiority, advanced electronic warfare, real-time satellite images and other relevant intelligence. Ukraine needs to get out of World War I style warfare for the reason it cannot sustain the current rate of military personnel loss as the US and NATO struggle to replenish the overwhelming artillery shells requirement. Ukraine needs to gain capabilities up to par with NATO in order to stop the bloodshed, retain its infrastructure and get on a path to self-reliance for its military and economic needs.

This image illustrates the aid distribution for Ukraine and underlines Military Aid (munitions) segments delivered since February 23, 2022 totaling the equivalent of roughly $23B.

Conclusion

The availability of crucial military capabilities is one of the major key components of victory. At the moment the situation on the battlefield is described as a stalemate, however this cannot persist at the current pace indefinitely. The Russian Federation is making substantial investments in its military and has notably enhanced its capabilities over the past year as it pursues military deals with China, Iran and North Korea. As Russia continues to advance and evolve, Ukraine must do the same through its partnership with the US. As an added benefit to the US, Military Aid to Ukraine creates jobs in the US and funds improvements within our own US Armed Forces.

We must recognize that the current state of the Russian-Ukrainian war is perceived as a success by aggressive nations like China, Iran, North Korea and others. Regrettably, this raises doubts about the United States' ability and commitment to uphold our stated values and support our partners and allies in times of crisis.

It is evident that the world is now more troubled than it was twenty months ago as we continue down a path of deterioration. This crisis requires immediate attention. We can curb global escalation by taking swift and decisive action to ensure Ukraine's victory in the immediate future. For this to happen Ukraine must gain capabilities inline with modern warfare to help break through the World War I style warfare we see today which results in severe human losses due to the West’s inability to meet the supply requirement for artillery shells.

Any delay in providing Ukraine with the necessary capabilities risks wasting the investment of security the West made thus far, and can only escalate the costs of the war and the restoration of global peace and stability. Nothing else can bring about a long-lasting peace in Europe besides peace through strength, now.

It is now in the hands of the US Congress to make a shift in Military Aid strategy for Ukraine and avert further global escalations and potential future conflicts and wars.

The following individuals and organizations have authored and signed this document.

Oleg Gorenko
oleg@protectukrainenow.org
Military Expert
Protect Ukraine Now

Alik Kasman
alik@protectukrainenow.org
Team Lead
Protect Ukraine Now

Alexandra Zakhvatayev
alexandra.zakhvatayev@gmail.com
Writer / Activist